By Gaurang Somaiya
Rupee in the last few weeks has been consolidating and trading in a narrow range of 82.80 and 83.50 despite unfolding of important events that triggered volatility for the dollar index and the other major crosses. Last week, it was geopolitics which was in focus and gains for the greenback were seen on back of safe haven buying in the currency. During the weekend, gunmen from the Palestinian group Hamas rampaged through Israel, thereby killing at least 250 Israelis and escaping with dozens of hostages. Israeli government formally declared war and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas for its surprise attack, as the military tried to crush fighters still in southern towns and intensified its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. In retaliation, Israeli Air-force has launched intense bombing raids on Gaza over the past five days and is massing tens of thousands of troops along the border ahead of a possible ground invasion.
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Geopolitics remains in the forefront apart from inflation number that was released during the week. Data showed inflation, on the domestic front, inflation in September eased at 5.02%, a three-month low on the back of softer vegetable prices. On the other hand, the dollar rose against its major crosses after inflation in the US rose marginally to 3.7% as compared to estimates of 3.6%. When shedding-off gas and food, the core CPI cooled for the sixth month in a row and was up 4.1% annually.
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This week, on the domestic front, no major economic data is expected to be released but active RBI intervention is likely to keep the volatility in check. Latest, data released from the RBI showed FX reserves currently stand at the lowest level in five months at $584.7 bln. On the domestic front, no major economic data is expected to be released but on the global front, from US the dollar could react to Fed member’s speech and a couple of important economic data from the US. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade sideways and quote in the range of 82.80 and 83.50.
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Global Currencies
Volatility in the dollar was elevated and it traded in a broad range of 105.20 and 106.80 even as twists and turns on the geopolitics front lead to rising uncertainty across asset classes. Domestic equities witnessed selling pressure and safe haven buying was seen in the dollar and precious metals. The greenback gained after inflation in the US rose to 3.7% in September as compared to a rise of 3.6% in the previous month. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed that concern over inflation remain that led to an uptick in US treasury yields, rising to the highest level in 16-years. This week, from the US, retail sales, Philly Fed manufacturing index number and Fed member’s speech will be important to watch. Better-than-expected economic data is expected to keep the dollar supported at lower levels. But geopolitics will be on the forefront and ongoing tension in Israel is likely to trigger volatility for the dollar index.
(Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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